NBS Signal ToolNifty · Bank Nifty · Sensex

What it measured

The rule set on this site has been backtested. The result was not good, and it is on its own page in the main navigation rather than in small type at the bottom of another one.

Roughly break-even before costs. Negative after.

Across three years of 15-minute candles and 8,837 signals, the rule set described on this site measured approximately break-even before trading costs, and negative once brokerage, the option bid-ask spread and time decay are counted. Its targets are reached about a third of the time.

8,837
signals measured, on 15-minute candles
3 years
of history the rule set was run across
~1 in 3
of its targets were actually reached
negative
expectancy once costs are counted

What the test did

  • Ran the same signal_engine the app runs — not a reimplementation of it, which is the usual way a backtest and a live tool quietly stop agreeing.
  • Used 15-minute candles across all three indices, over three years.
  • Applied the same gates: the ADX floor, the reward-to-risk floor, the confirmation window, the daily limits.
  • Counted a trade as closed when a target or the stop was reached, exactly as the live tool logs it.

What the test could not do

  • Fill you at the price on the screen. Index options move in ticks and spreads, and the spread is where a marginal edge goes to die. This is the single biggest reason the before-costs and after-costs numbers differ so much.
  • Know your slippage. Lot size, time of day and how far out of the money the strike sits all change it, and none of them are constant.
  • Model your own behaviour. A backtest takes every signal. Nobody does. Whether that helps or hurts is not something the test can say.
  • Predict a regime it never saw. Three years is three years of particular markets, not of all markets.

Why publish it anyway

Because a rule set you can inspect and measure is worth more than a tip you cannot. Everything on the how-it-works page is checkable line by line, the code is in one place with the reasoning written beside it, and this page exists so that the measurement is as easy to find as the screenshots.

The useful version of this tool is as a second opinion you can interrogate — a fast, consistent read of what the indicators currently say, and an explicit statement when a setup does not clear its own bar. It is good at that. It is not good at making money, and it has been measured saying so.

Treat everything here as something to examine, never as something to act on. Options can lose their entire value.

How the live record is kept

Every ticket this server issues is written to a trade file when it closes, whichever way it went, with the targets and stop that were frozen at entry. The summary above is computed from that file — there is no separate curated list, and nothing is excluded for having been a bad day.

A live record of a few dozen trades is a sample. It is shown because hiding it would be worse, not because it settles anything; the three-year figures are the measurement.